Music Trade Review

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PLAYER SECTION
NEW YORK, JANUARY 26, 1918
The Immediate Future of the Player Industry Is Dependent Upon Existing
Conditions as Influenced By the War, But the Outlook for a Continuance
of Prosperity and Activity in the Trade Is By No Means Discouraging
Nothing is easier than to see what we wish
to see. Nothing is easier than to believe what
we wish to believe. Yet nothing is harder than
to reason rightly on that which we seem to per-
ceive and to draw correct conclusions from evi-
dence which piles up against our wish but in
front of our view. The truth works both ways.
It is as much applicable to the shallow optimist
as to the gloomy pessimist. It is far too easy
to see success where in reality failure is in-
evitable. But it is just as easy to see failure
when success really may be won.
The difference lies simply in the way of ap-
proaching a problem. The superficial observer
looks on the surface of things and sees the
momentary fluctuations of events. He counts
and builds on these alone, nor need one be sur-
prised if, according to his temperament, he
habitually guesses all on the pleasant side or
all on the unpleasant; and habitually guesses
wrong. The correct thinker, however, works on
principle. He knows that one must look below
the surface, endeavor to trace the causes of
events, and draw one's conclusions without fear
of consequences to one's personal likes or dis-
likes.
_"»
On just such a basis as this, supposing that a
correct estimate of the underlying conditions
can be made—which, it may be admitted, is by
no means the smallest of assumptions—we are
convinced that the general condition of the
United States is altogether healthy, that the
economic prospects are bright; and that, if we
willingly and qheerfully back up our Govern-
ment in its necessary economic and industrial
measures, we shall find ourselves rightly and
amply rewarded by the time that New Year's
Day comes around once more.
In what follows the writer endeavors, on the
basis of knowledge, information and belief, to
trace what he considers to be the reasons for
the assertions made in the above paragraph;
with especial reference .to the music industries
and to the branch thereof whose interests form
the subject-matter of these pages.
The condition of our particular industry dur-
ing 1918 will be governed by four special and
main considerations. These are (1) the dura-
tion of the war, (2) the extent to which fuel or
transportation troubles may affect us, (3) the
economic condition of the people, and (4) the
kind of campaign which we choose to make for
business. No. 1 partially determines Nos. 2
and 3.
War
The easiest and cheapest talk in the world is
war talk. The hugely greater part of what one
hears is the veriest drivel. The war can end in
1918.
On one condition, however, and that is
that every man, woman and child in every coun-
try of the Grand Alliance, including ourselves,
puts his or her shoulder to the wheel:
If we fail to do this we shall prolong the
war. We shall not lose it, nor will the U. S. A.
"go in and clean the thing up," with supreme
contempt for every one else, including our Allies.
Not at all. We shall win the war, together, we
and our Allies. But, the longer it lasts the more
artificial becomes the economic condition of the
peoples of the world, and the sharper will be
the reaction.
Therefore, let us bend our energies to help the
Government do its part to win the war in 1918.
This simply means (1) obeying cheerfully the
Government's wisdom unless we can prove to
the Government that it is not wisdom; (2) speed-
ing up industry in every way, (3) maintaining
calmness under inconveniences and courage in
the face of enemy talk. We are going to win;
make no sort of doubt of it; we are going to
win! And we are in it, together, to the end.
Fuel drid Transportation
Fuel and transportation troubles are one and
the same thing. As Mr. Pound told us the other
night in Chicago, the fuel shortage is a. trans-
portation shortage. Now, it is perfectly plain
that, priority or no priority, it is not physical
incapacity that is congesting the railways. It
is, at bottom, lack of systematic co-ordination
between industry and transportation, coupled
with disinclination on the part of some indi-
viduals to square their private interests with
the interests of the country. Terminal conges-
tion, holding up of loaded cars at junction points
and similar troubles, are quite largely traceable
to abuse of the demurrage charge privilege. And
there are other difficulties of the same sort.
Add to these the necessary disorganization of
schedules caused by the priority given to war
material, and the causes of congestion may be
seen clearly. This congestion threatens short-
age of fuel for general industry and shortage
of cars for the shipment of commercial products.
Not in the Cold
But all this is even now being remedied. The
piano trade and its allies are not being left out
in the cold. We have a watchful representa-
tive in Washington and we are going to get our
rightful share of facilities. Our output may be
a little smaller this year. But what of that?
This year we can get better prices than we
ever got before! Moreover, we can get bet-
ter terms, too! A little squeezing out of water
and waste will do no harm whate\er. No one
but a lunatic imagines that the people will not
buy pianos this year. If every piano factory in
the U. S. A. shut down to-morrow for six
months, pianos would still be sold, till every
last second-hand upright stencil had changed
hands. There will be business, never fear, de-
spite small coal-piles and delayed shipments.
Prosperity
The economic condition of the people during
the coming year must also be considered and
estimated if possible. The survey shows little
occasion to the pessimist for indulging in his
favorite gloom. Putting aside occasional and
local disturbances which happen at all times—
and in peace-times just as often as now—there
is not the least chance of a slackening of ac-
tivity. The call of industry is felt by every
man who has mechanical ability or any kind of
industrial value. Even the American woman
who hitherto has left almost untouched all lines
of industrial work outside of a very narrow cir-
cle is getting into munition work and similar
activities; getting into them because she is
needed. Every man who goes into the serv-
ices must be replaced somehow. Intense ac-
tivity with wages in proportion is bound to pro-
duce, as it has produced in Great Britain and
Canada, general high prosperity and high de-
mand for musical instruments.
Our Campaign
We have a last question to ask: What sort
of campaign are we to wage for our industry
this year?
The question might be answered in many
ways. Only a skeleton outline can be given in
the space at our disposal. It is plain as a
pikestaff that 1918 must be with us a straight
and bunkless year, a year of values, of service
and of honest appeal based on honest merit.
The people will want music as never before;
depend on that. They will need and should
have the best that can be given them for what
they will spend. And the advertising we do
should be, everywhere and at all times, for the
best, in pianos, in player-pianos, in everything
else.
The player-piano is already doing war work.
In the Y. M. C. A. huts, in the navy and marine
barracks, at the various training camps, aboard
the ships of the fleet, wherever the soldiers and
sailors gather together, the American player-
piano and the American music roll, just like the
American talking machine, are on the job; on
the job because they are needed on it. There-
fore, we have a right to say that the music in-
dustries are doing a good work and that music
(Continued on page 4)