Music Trade Review
Issue: 1919 Vol. 69 N. 24 - Page 13
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DECEMBER 13,
1919
THE MUSIC TRADE REVIEW
13
Music Trade in General Views
Outlook for 1920 With Optimism
Manufacturers and Dealers in All Parts of the Country, Almost Without Exception, Are Confident That the Demand for
and Production of Musical Instruments Will Increase, That Labor Will Become Settled, and That General Pros-
perity Will Prevail During the Coming Year—The Question of Production of the Utmost Importance
O make an accurate forecast of business conditions in the music industry for the coming year is something like endeavoring to name
the exact contents of a surprise package while it is still tied up. The situation has been so chaotic generally that the average business
man has been up in the air and has been unable to prophesy what was going to happen the next week, much less the next year. There are
certain basic conditions, however, that can be utilized as a gauge for judging in advance, in some measure at least, just what the future
holds forth.
It is certain that, come what may, production is going to keep behind demand for another year at least, regardless of how that
demand may be affected. Were production normal the matter might not be so certain, but production is far below normal and the
demand might drop off to a surprising degree as a result of general business depression, or some other widespread cause, before it would
cause any more distress to the piano merchant than he is suffering at present.
The piano men are an optimistic lot, however, and, realizing the facts, are inclined to base any prophesies on 1920 on the premise
that sufficient stock will not be available to permit of any great increase in business volume and that they must be prepared to carry on
under much the same handicaps as have prevailed this year with, it is hoped, the factor of labor unrest much less prominent or eliminated
altogether.
So far as New York is concerned, any possible prediction regarding 1920 business must of necessity depend upon the question of
labor. If the many factories in and about New York are fully manned by the first of the year or shortly thereafter, and, to be frank,
this appears to be unlikely, then the market is in for a period of unprecedented activity. Should the manufacturers be handicapped as
at present, however, their business is going to be limited and so will the business of the majority of the retail stores. The local retailers
are not complaining overmuch, however, for they have first-hand understanding of the situation, are selling at substantial prices for
the most part, and for cash or short terms, and are making a limited volume of business pay a percentage of profit that will keep things
going.
In other sections of the country the conditions are strikingly similar, for although factories may be running without hindrance, the
question of man power still enters and production suffers thereby. The views of piano men in several sections of the country have
been sought by The Review and make interesting reading. It is particularly noticeable that the out-and-out pessimist is conspicuous by
his absence, which, in itself, is a good and healthy sign.
Some of the views from both manufacturers and dealers in the various cities are presented herewith:
T
Boston Trade Sees End of Hysterical Buying
BOSTON, MASS., December 8.—It is not easy to
lure the local piano men to discuss the possible
situation that faces the industry during 1920.
Most of them seem reluctant to commit them-
selves, for, as one said, one man's guess is as
good as another's. One manufacturer's advice
(he is a clear-headed man who seldom talks
for publication) is to "go slow," for he thinks
there are breakers ahead in the sea of com-
mercialism. He thinks a word of caution is
especially needed just now in view of the un-
usual prosperity the trade has enjoyed in 1919,
which he calls an abnormal situation. With the
exercise of wise, sound common sense he sees
no reason why the coming year should not be
fraught with prosperity, but the trade must
not look for conditions anywhere near ap-
proaching those of 1919, as they are to be al-
together different. There is a sifting process
going on and soon there will be a general set-
tling down, antagonistic factors will be more
harmonized and the business will continue along
saner lines. As the year 1919 brought into the
piano trade an entirely new class of customers
for high-priced instruments the pendulum will
swing partly the other way in 1920 and the
largest purchasing element will be those who
represent the combination of money and in-
telligence. One knows perfectly well that it has
been by no means difficult to sell pianos this
year to the people who had the cash, but it's
going to be a bit harder next year, for brains
on the part of the buyer are going to enter
more conspicuously into the bargain. There's
going to be good business for the piano trade,
but one will have to work harder to get it.
"One hesitates to make a prediction for 1920,"
declared President Edward S. Payson, of the
Emerson Piano Co., "since there are so many
perplexing problems constantly intruding them-
selves into business these days. It is difficult
to obtain a line on anything. Personally, I do
not think this craze for buying is going to keep
up. Of course, the record for the present year
as one later will look back upon it will stand
out conspicuously as a remarkable achievement
in piano history, but while I am inclined to
believe that 1920 will fall behind I still think
that the business for the twelve months will be
a very healthy one and with none of the hys-
terics which has characterized the buying this
year."
Secretary John L. Cotter, of the Hallet &
Davis Co., who is usually of an optimistic turn
of mind, is looking forward to next year as a
twelve months of great business prosperity, pro-
vided, of course, that unexpected factors do not
intrude themselves. There is always the ques-
tion of labor to be taken into consideration, but
Mr. Cotter is hopeful that many of the annoying
problems experienced in 1919 will be amicably
adjusted and business be finally got down to a
bed-rock basis of healthy, sane and normal
processes.
General Manager E. C. Cressey, of the C. C.
Harvey Co., holds a very hopeful view of the
situation in 1920, though he confesses he has
no pronounced predictions to make because
of the several factors now facing the country, all
of which are sure to play some part in the busi-
ness world. Under normal conditions, how-
ever, Mr. Cressey thrinks there should be splen-
did business in the piano world during the year
which now is awaiting it.
Steel Situation Encourages Pittsburgh Trade
PITTSBURGH, PA., December 8.—Pittsburgh piano
merchants are very optimistic concerning the
trade prospects for 1920. They base their hope-
ful outlook on the fact that the iron and steel
industry, the life blood of the district, was never
in a better working condition, despite the steel
strike. Orders are piling up and it is estimated
that the contracts in view will keep the mills
operating steadily for the next eight or ten
months. One certain thing is assured, and that
is that wages will not be revised downward.
This will make the regular payrolls, which run
into the millions, an admirable source from
which the music trade can draw.
C. J. Roberts, president of the Piano Mer-
chants' Association of Pittsburgh and manager
of the Chas. M. Stieff, Inc., Pittsburgh store,
said: "I am very optimistic concerning the fu-
ture and believe that 1920 will be a most re-
markable year for the piano trade. It will mean
more business, more satisfactory sales condi-
tions as they affect the dealer and if the produc-
tion is increased a big run of business for the
piano trade as a whole."
W. C. Dierks, general manager of the C. C.
Mellor Co., said: "If the piano makers work
we will have plenty of pianos and business will
be good. If they remain idle there will be no
pianos and consequently no business." Mr.
Dierks, however, stated that trade thus far had
been very brisk and that sales for November
had passed the same period a year ago by a very
high percentage.
W. C. Hamilton, president of the S. Hamilton
Co., said: "The outlook so far as I can see is
very bright and indicates that the new year will
be a very satisfactory one for the piano mer-
chants here if there is plenty of merchandise."
E. B. Heyser, general manager of the W. F.
Frederick Piano Co., stated that he was looking
on the bright side and that while it was rather
difficult to make any accurate prediction as to
1920 he was of the opinion that with general pros-
perity prevailing in the country, part of it would
naturally be reflected in the piano industry.
Jacob Schoenberger, of the Lechner &
Schoenberger Co., said that the proposition of
(Continued on page 15)
DECEMBER 13,
1919
THE MUSIC TRADE REVIEW
13
Music Trade in General Views
Outlook for 1920 With Optimism
Manufacturers and Dealers in All Parts of the Country, Almost Without Exception, Are Confident That the Demand for
and Production of Musical Instruments Will Increase, That Labor Will Become Settled, and That General Pros-
perity Will Prevail During the Coming Year—The Question of Production of the Utmost Importance
O make an accurate forecast of business conditions in the music industry for the coming year is something like endeavoring to name
the exact contents of a surprise package while it is still tied up. The situation has been so chaotic generally that the average business
man has been up in the air and has been unable to prophesy what was going to happen the next week, much less the next year. There are
certain basic conditions, however, that can be utilized as a gauge for judging in advance, in some measure at least, just what the future
holds forth.
It is certain that, come what may, production is going to keep behind demand for another year at least, regardless of how that
demand may be affected. Were production normal the matter might not be so certain, but production is far below normal and the
demand might drop off to a surprising degree as a result of general business depression, or some other widespread cause, before it would
cause any more distress to the piano merchant than he is suffering at present.
The piano men are an optimistic lot, however, and, realizing the facts, are inclined to base any prophesies on 1920 on the premise
that sufficient stock will not be available to permit of any great increase in business volume and that they must be prepared to carry on
under much the same handicaps as have prevailed this year with, it is hoped, the factor of labor unrest much less prominent or eliminated
altogether.
So far as New York is concerned, any possible prediction regarding 1920 business must of necessity depend upon the question of
labor. If the many factories in and about New York are fully manned by the first of the year or shortly thereafter, and, to be frank,
this appears to be unlikely, then the market is in for a period of unprecedented activity. Should the manufacturers be handicapped as
at present, however, their business is going to be limited and so will the business of the majority of the retail stores. The local retailers
are not complaining overmuch, however, for they have first-hand understanding of the situation, are selling at substantial prices for
the most part, and for cash or short terms, and are making a limited volume of business pay a percentage of profit that will keep things
going.
In other sections of the country the conditions are strikingly similar, for although factories may be running without hindrance, the
question of man power still enters and production suffers thereby. The views of piano men in several sections of the country have
been sought by The Review and make interesting reading. It is particularly noticeable that the out-and-out pessimist is conspicuous by
his absence, which, in itself, is a good and healthy sign.
Some of the views from both manufacturers and dealers in the various cities are presented herewith:
T
Boston Trade Sees End of Hysterical Buying
BOSTON, MASS., December 8.—It is not easy to
lure the local piano men to discuss the possible
situation that faces the industry during 1920.
Most of them seem reluctant to commit them-
selves, for, as one said, one man's guess is as
good as another's. One manufacturer's advice
(he is a clear-headed man who seldom talks
for publication) is to "go slow," for he thinks
there are breakers ahead in the sea of com-
mercialism. He thinks a word of caution is
especially needed just now in view of the un-
usual prosperity the trade has enjoyed in 1919,
which he calls an abnormal situation. With the
exercise of wise, sound common sense he sees
no reason why the coming year should not be
fraught with prosperity, but the trade must
not look for conditions anywhere near ap-
proaching those of 1919, as they are to be al-
together different. There is a sifting process
going on and soon there will be a general set-
tling down, antagonistic factors will be more
harmonized and the business will continue along
saner lines. As the year 1919 brought into the
piano trade an entirely new class of customers
for high-priced instruments the pendulum will
swing partly the other way in 1920 and the
largest purchasing element will be those who
represent the combination of money and in-
telligence. One knows perfectly well that it has
been by no means difficult to sell pianos this
year to the people who had the cash, but it's
going to be a bit harder next year, for brains
on the part of the buyer are going to enter
more conspicuously into the bargain. There's
going to be good business for the piano trade,
but one will have to work harder to get it.
"One hesitates to make a prediction for 1920,"
declared President Edward S. Payson, of the
Emerson Piano Co., "since there are so many
perplexing problems constantly intruding them-
selves into business these days. It is difficult
to obtain a line on anything. Personally, I do
not think this craze for buying is going to keep
up. Of course, the record for the present year
as one later will look back upon it will stand
out conspicuously as a remarkable achievement
in piano history, but while I am inclined to
believe that 1920 will fall behind I still think
that the business for the twelve months will be
a very healthy one and with none of the hys-
terics which has characterized the buying this
year."
Secretary John L. Cotter, of the Hallet &
Davis Co., who is usually of an optimistic turn
of mind, is looking forward to next year as a
twelve months of great business prosperity, pro-
vided, of course, that unexpected factors do not
intrude themselves. There is always the ques-
tion of labor to be taken into consideration, but
Mr. Cotter is hopeful that many of the annoying
problems experienced in 1919 will be amicably
adjusted and business be finally got down to a
bed-rock basis of healthy, sane and normal
processes.
General Manager E. C. Cressey, of the C. C.
Harvey Co., holds a very hopeful view of the
situation in 1920, though he confesses he has
no pronounced predictions to make because
of the several factors now facing the country, all
of which are sure to play some part in the busi-
ness world. Under normal conditions, how-
ever, Mr. Cressey thrinks there should be splen-
did business in the piano world during the year
which now is awaiting it.
Steel Situation Encourages Pittsburgh Trade
PITTSBURGH, PA., December 8.—Pittsburgh piano
merchants are very optimistic concerning the
trade prospects for 1920. They base their hope-
ful outlook on the fact that the iron and steel
industry, the life blood of the district, was never
in a better working condition, despite the steel
strike. Orders are piling up and it is estimated
that the contracts in view will keep the mills
operating steadily for the next eight or ten
months. One certain thing is assured, and that
is that wages will not be revised downward.
This will make the regular payrolls, which run
into the millions, an admirable source from
which the music trade can draw.
C. J. Roberts, president of the Piano Mer-
chants' Association of Pittsburgh and manager
of the Chas. M. Stieff, Inc., Pittsburgh store,
said: "I am very optimistic concerning the fu-
ture and believe that 1920 will be a most re-
markable year for the piano trade. It will mean
more business, more satisfactory sales condi-
tions as they affect the dealer and if the produc-
tion is increased a big run of business for the
piano trade as a whole."
W. C. Dierks, general manager of the C. C.
Mellor Co., said: "If the piano makers work
we will have plenty of pianos and business will
be good. If they remain idle there will be no
pianos and consequently no business." Mr.
Dierks, however, stated that trade thus far had
been very brisk and that sales for November
had passed the same period a year ago by a very
high percentage.
W. C. Hamilton, president of the S. Hamilton
Co., said: "The outlook so far as I can see is
very bright and indicates that the new year will
be a very satisfactory one for the piano mer-
chants here if there is plenty of merchandise."
E. B. Heyser, general manager of the W. F.
Frederick Piano Co., stated that he was looking
on the bright side and that while it was rather
difficult to make any accurate prediction as to
1920 he was of the opinion that with general pros-
perity prevailing in the country, part of it would
naturally be reflected in the piano industry.
Jacob Schoenberger, of the Lechner &
Schoenberger Co., said that the proposition of
(Continued on page 15)
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