Music Trade Review

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Music Trade REVIEW.
The Only Music Trade Paper in America, and the Organ of the Music Trade of this Country.
1879.
NEW YORK, SEPTEMBER 5 TO 20 i885.
VOL. IX. No. 3.
PUBLISHED •:• TWICE * EACH * MONTH.
WILL
BUSINESS
REVIVE?
OPINIONS FROM MANY SOURCES.
CHARLES AVERY WELLES,
EDITOB AND PROPRIETOR.
A HOPEFUL PROSPECT.
JEFF. DAVIS BILL,
HIS is the most important question of the day
in the commercial circles of the country. No
other topic compares with it in interest. It has
been making business men prematurely bald and grey,
lessening their avoirdupois, ruining their appetites
and afflicting them with insomnia for the last four-
teen or sixteen months, and still they ask one another
in the railway trains, in offices, in the street, on the
piazzas of summer resort hotels, "Will Business Re-
vive?"
It is a question they want answered, too; and right
away, in a hurry.
The question seems difficult, but we can readily
answer it in two ways : first, that business will revive
if people buy more goods at better prices than they
have done in nearly two years; second, that it will
not revive if producers cannot dispose of more wares
than they have done in a long while. That is, we
might answer the question in either of these ways if
we did not fear that the public might unjustly or mal-
iciously call us frivolous, which we would deeply
regret.
It has already been contended in the Music TBADE
REVIEW that it is useless to predicate the condition of
business at a given time in the future. It is as diffi-
cult as predicting the Republican or Democratic
majority in the state of Ohio before a Presidential
election. One time it goes one way, and the next
time the other way, and sets all theories, prognos-
tications and calculations at defiance. Of all the
signs pointing to a revival of business, a restoration
of confidence among business men is the most satis-
factory to us. It may be plausibly asserted that the
restoration of confidence results from known causes
from which a revival of business may be predicted
without waiting for the general feeling of confidence
to become assured. We do not think so, for the
reason that the feeling of confidence with nine-tenths
of the people is not the result of sagacious reasoning
but is simply contagious in its nature. In other
words, it is catching. People are alike in their hopes
or fears, and in either case follow their leaders like
sheep, without being able to rationally justify their
actions.
T
MANAGER.
22 EAST 17th STREET, NEW YOEK,
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TIDINGS FROM THE TRADE.
MR. BRODEEICK REPLIES TO MR. 8LOMOSK.Y.
CHICAGO, Aug. 26,
MR. CHARLES AVERY WELLES,
1885.
DEAR SIR :—I see an article in your issue of August
5, which places me in a very unenviable light. I
refer to your article entitled "Justice to Mr. Slom-
osky." During one of your Mr. Bill's visits to us I
related the incident you refer to, not quite as you
have published it, but said that while in the store of
the firm mentioned in Toledo, Stultz & Bauer's
traveler came in and represented that they made
our pianos. I did not say that I was introduced to
the gentleman, but was referred to by Mr. Metcalf
as the traveler for Julius Bauer & Co. As for my
leaving the store, that is not so, as I was perfectly
familiar with Mr. Metcalf and the coming in of
Slomosky interrupted our conversation, which was
continued after he left. Further on in your article
you say that Mr. Slomosky proved to your satisfaction
that at that time he was selling the Julius Bauer
piano. Now, this is a strange thing for you to say.
I toll you positively that he never sold the Julius
Bauer piano, and I think I am in a position to know.
Hoping you will give me credit for being sincere in
all this, and that you will see the necessity of my
explanation to you, I remain,
Yours very respectfully,
JAS. F.
BRODERICK.
[Referring to the statement we made that Mr. Slo-
mosky was selling the Julius Bauer piano, I would
explain that Mr. Slomosky informed us that he had
sold Julius Bauer pianos, meaning that he had sold
pianos to Julius Bauer. We wrote that he had sold
Julius Bauer & Co. pianos, meaning that he had
sold pianos to that concern. The compositor prob-
ably differed in opinion with us, and set it up so that
it read that he had sold Julius Bauer & Co.'8 pianos.
The apostrophe and the s tacked on to Co. were
overlooked in reading the proof.—CHARLES AVERY
WELLES.]
REMOVAL OF W. SHARP.
SEDALIA, MO., August 26, 1885.
CHARLES AVERY WELLES,
Esq.,
DEAR SIR :—Please change my address from Tip-
ton, Mo., to Sedalia, Mo., as I have put the Tipton
business in my son's hands and have opened up in
Sedalia.
Times are close. Competition very heavy. Col-
lections unsatisfactory, but we hope for a revival of
trade soon. At any rate we feel too poor to quit the
business at present.
Yours truly,
W. SHARP.
$2.00 PER YEAR.
SINGLE COPIES, 10 CENTS.
vance In the prices of some of the great staples, it
points out that many of these advances are highly
colored, and lets us infer that it will not do to place
a great deal of faith in them as an indication of a re-
vival of commercial activity. It says :—
" A danger exists, therefore, that this or that
group of facts may be given a wider meaning than
its importance deserves. On the other hand, it has
to be said that the logical effect of a consiantly in-
creasing publicity must inevitably be to lessen Ihe
ups and downfi of commerce, or. in other words, to
substitute gradually lessening curves for the sharp
declivity and the direct ascent. Thin being true, it is
possible that a way out of the present low-price period
may appear without the extreme of speculative activity."
Good ! The last sentence of the extract, the italics
in which are our own, expresses the hope of the
Music TRADE REVIEW. If business will revive without
the aid of " speculative activity," there is a chance
that we may experience a moderate and rational de-
gree of prosperity for a considerable time, at least,
until the octopus, speculation, Rhall again throttle
our commercial interests, as in this country, with our
gambling Instincts it seems bound to do, in spite of
the lessons taught by experience.
One other quotation we must make from the arti-
cle In Bradstreefs, for without taking a pessimistic
view of the situation, it hoists, as it were, a caution-
ary signal, warning us against excessive enthusiasm
over the present rather bright outlook for a revival
of trade. It reads as follows, and the italics are our
own:—
"It appears then that a heavier autumn demand
for print cloths, for bleached and brown cottons, for
boots and shoes, and for raw wool from eastern man-
ufacturers, constitute the only visible improvement.
The coming autumn was expected to bring increased
business; it always does. Its arrival in somewhat
heavier proportions than looked for is welcome, but
it is yet too early to determine the staying qualities
of the movement—i. e., whether the general public
are Increasing the rate of purchase; whether the late
period of economizing now enables and suggests to
the public a more generous gratification of .wants.
Thirty days hence, when more of the crops have been
gathered and sold, when the farmer knows where he stands
financially after his year's work, the traffic returns from
eastern manufacturing
centers will prove of greater im-
port. The number of mercantile failures throughout
the United States from January 1 to August 12 this
year amounted to over 7,900, as compared with 7,132
in a like portion of 1884, with 6,616 in 1883, and with
4,270 in a like share of 1882. But the totals reported
weekly have been somewhat below the corresponding
figures during July and August in 1884,which may per-
A straw will show which way the wind blows, and haps be regarded as of a favorable significance. Within
another month, or by October 1, the meaning of the
several straws are now flying in the same direction weekly failures reported to Bradstreet's will be much
in the commercial breeze. They all tend to make us clearer. While the total number of failures for eight
hopeful. They appear mainly in the shape of editor- months is 11 per fent. heavier than for eight months
ial expressions of opinion in various reliable news- of 1884, for July and August they are nearly 10 per
cent, less than in the like months last year."
papers, and it gives us pleasure to quote from them,
The New York Times of the third inst., expresses
as their common sentiment is that we have at least
tided over the worst, and may confidently look for Itself hopefully concerning the situation and opens
an editorial upon "The Business Outlook," in these
a better state of affairs..
Brad8treet'8> being a publication issued by a com- words:
"There are many indications that the general busi-
mercial agency of high standing, may be considered
ness of the country is undergoing a change for the bet-
to speak with considerable authority, and though it ter.
The demand for dry goods and other goods from
is eminently conservative, the tone of its article of the South and Southwest is perceptibly stronger and
August 29, entitled " Business Signs," is better cal- more confident. Retail dealers, the distributors near-
culated to inspire confidence than hopelessness. It est the consumers, seem to have made up their minds
at last that there is more risk in waiting than in buy-
opens in this way :—
ing. It has been known for a long while that retail
" Near the close of July Bradstreet's noted the fact stocks were running very low, and that dealers were
that the record for the first six months of the year 'living from hand to mouth,' and it has been held as
' gave few signs favoring the near approach of specu- certain that the time must come when they would
lative activity and high prices.' At the same time feel sufficiently hopeful to renew their former mode
it was pointed out that the underlying conditions of of purchasing. Apparently that time has now come.
The fact that the first and most definite signs of Im-
business had become 'much more favorable.' "
Throughout the Bradatreet article Is extremely provement are noticed from the South, and partic-
ularly from the Southwest, is undoubtedly due to the
cautious, and we cannot say that we like it any the excellent prospect of the cotton crop. But it is also
less on that account. While admitting an upward due to the fact that the South, which has been more
movement in the New York stock market, and an ad- free than other sections from the fever of speculation,