of these failures is being stressed too much;
there is no alarm in the situation, he says.
CREDIT-The government is now fol-
lowing a policy of relaxing credit. Finance
firms are said to be expecting good in-
creases in business.
CONSTRUCTION-The total construc-
tion picture showed a slower pickup this
spring than last year, but total volume is
still higher ; industry is putting less money
into building, more into equipment. Public
construction, accounting for 26 per cent
of the total, has made a gain of 39 per
cent above a year ago, and much more
can be started. Costs of industrial building
remains unchanged since last October;
leaders say factory building will stay high
but it has passed its peak; may be a 15
per cent drop in last half of year. Building
costs are beginning to decline very slightly.
CROP REPORTS-They are very im-
portant for several months, and up to the
present are generally very favorable for
bumper crops and lower food prices. Vege-
tables and wheat have shown biggest price
reaction to crop news.
EMPLOYMENT-April and May were
to show the crucial trend in employment,
and official reports are not available. Pre-
sumably, the rise in unemployment was
checked in March. Operators of coin ma-
chines talk much of signs they have seen
of growing unemployment. One of the big
financial newspapers recently hinted that
unemployment might be more serious than
the reports show, since there is no way
of really knowing how many people have
a living income at present. Purchasing
Agents reported a slight improvement in
business in April, that payrolls remained
about the same, but that shorter hours are
generally reported by all firms.
EUROPEAN AID-As this review is
written, the Berlin blockade is about to be
lifted-really a minor • thing but it will
have a big psychological effect. Big busi-
ness now worries much about European
aid, fearing that when Europe is revived
its goods will compete severely with Ameri-
can goods in world markets. .Europe can
sell goods cheaper than we can, can run
circles around U. S. dollars, just as Russia
is now doing with chrome, manganese, etc.
Prediction is that European aid will
continue, will be increased, but that it
all may be changed in 1950.
FARMERS- Experts argue how big a
part farmers now play in buying goods;
their springtime spending was brisk and
helped business. The Wall Street J oumal
pointed out another sharp break in farm
prices the last week in April. Prices for
farm products had been averaging about
6 per cent above support price.
FREIGHT- The U. S. Supreme Court
made another decision on basing point
rates, which apparently did not clear up
the muddle. New hearings before ICC
began May 13 on the railroad plea for
13 per cent increase in freight rates. Total
rail freight shipments dropped during first
three months of year.
GASOLINE-Price trend, especially in
East, has been upward; demand is in -
creasing at a steady rate and the big sum-
mer farm and tourist season is now on,
no shortage is anticipated. American Auto-
mobile Assn. has asked oil companies to
explain why of hiked gas prices.
GOVERNMENT MONEY- More than
ever, government money is being counted
on to halt recession and to start the next
boom. Big RFC loans are planned for
business and payments to farmers will
be hiked. If defense plans don't turn the
tide, a big highway program will be counted
on to do it.
MATERIALS- Much attention is being
JUNE, 1949
given to steel; price trend is downward
quarter; outlook for the year is pronounced
and there is some fear demand may slack, ' very good but will not be up to last year.
after many firms rushed to build up stocks
PRODUCTION-The official report is
when sµpp ly improved. Steel companies that industrial output slackened in Febru-
ary, and did not show the usual seasonal
have feared this drop in demand all along.
June is supposed to be a crucial month in
rise in March. Purchasing Agents Assn.
steel outlook.
reports the trend is to level off for the
From coin machine manufacturers' stand-
summer, "with a possible pickup by early
point, the big ,drop in copper prices ;.ow
fall." Among firms that cut production in
being reported will be considered as very January, 69 per cent reported higher pro-
favorable. There is some prospect that
duction in April and 31 per cent made cuts
aluminum prices may also start to decline.
in output during April. Factories report
MONEY-Without going into technicali-
man-hour production improving. For its
ties, money supply is immense and to the
total membership, the association said 48
per cent reported maintaining output sched-
buyer the dollar is worth more and more.
National income has started declining this
ules during April, while 19 per cent had
year, also wages and salaries. Bank deposits
increased production rate. This was the
are slightly below a year ago, nearly twice largest number to increase output since
last October.
the 1941 average. Money in circulation fol-
lows a declining trend, but is three times
PRICES-The price trend is downward
on such a wide front that it is not easy to
the 1941 average.
PROFITS-A general summary shows
IYive details. Food prices have shown a
profits for corporations good for the first reverse trend on the total average, how-
13
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