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Here's fVhat Some
7rade Leaders
rhink of 1931
NDER business conditions such as have existed for
the past year or so prophecies are more or less danger-
ous, for, if there lived a man who could foretell with
absolute accuracy business conditions of three or six months hence,
he need only sit in his office and have leaders of industry flock to
him. However, it is possible to reach some definite conclusion re-
garding future business possibilities through a study of the situa-
tion as it has existed for the past few months and from reports re-
ceived by the men in the firing line in various parts of the country.
We know, for instance, that there are retail houses that are
handling a very substantial volume of musical instrument business,
and while they may not be making quite as much money as they did
some years ago proportionately, nevertheless they are making profit.
The uncertainty in anticipating demands for the tendency toward
hand to mouth buying applies to the music industry as to practically
every other line of business. Retail stocks at the present time are,
U
in most cases, lower than they have been for many years, which
means that any upward swing of trade will bring with it a rush of
orders to the factories. The problem of the manufacturer, there-
fore, is to judge just how far he may go on a production schedule
in anticipation of such orders. There is every indication that the
general public is interested in music and that a very substantial
proportion is directly interested in the personal performance of
music. The question remains, therefore, as to how soon general
conditions will change sufficiently to translate that interest into terms
of dollars so that musical instrument purchases will increase.
The REVIEW has asked a number of prominent men in the in-
dustry for their views on 1931 business prospects. That these men
have confidence in the future is proven by the fact that they are
not only staying in business but are making more or less elaborate
plans for next year's campaign. Their expressions published here-
with -should aid materially in maintaining confidence in the industry.
industry there was a limited market for
pianos. It never could be regarded as large
from a standpoint of unit production, by
comparison with other industries.
We also know that the merchant in order
to be successful must have a proper margin
of profit in unit sales to make his business
attractive from a standpoint of returns for
invested capital—and we can measure our
returns by our willingness to assist in the
further development of that splendid work
now so well begun—and that is the work
with the schools throughout the country.
I feel, personally, that 1931 is going to
show a very marked increase in pian** pro-
duction.
C. Alfred Wagner, President, Music Industries
Chamber of Commerce:
In my opinion one of the brightest spots
in the outlook of the music industry for
the new year is represented by the reor-
ganized National Bureau for the Advance-
ment of Music and the work that it can and
will do for the cause of music generally and
for the benefit of those who manufacture
and sell the media for musical expression.
Certainly, the members of our trade should
take pride in the fact that educators and
philanthropic institutions of national stand-
ing have sufficient regard for the importance
of music and for the members of our indus-
try to work together with us to the com-
mon end of promoting the art.
The new Board of Control is so repre-
sentative of the best that the nation offers
in educational and general welfare circles
that it is bound to attract attention and
achieve results that will be far reaching.
Never in the history of the industry have
the makers and sellers of musical instru-
ments been afforded such an opportunity for
affiliating with and supporting so great a
work under such able auspices, and those
of us who are closest to the movement look
for some gratifying accomplishments in the
months to come.
Mark P. Campbell, President, Kohler-Brambach
Piano Co., New York:
I believe that the business prospects for
1931 are in general very promising. Our in-
dustry, as we all know, has been passing
through a period of reconstruction—and I
do not believe, for a minute, that the low
production during 1930 has been caused by
a lagging of interest in piano study and
music—and a very careful analysis has
shown that a much larger number of pupils
are studying the piano than ever before,
which proves conclusively that the interest
in the piano is not lagging.
We can review the past few years and it
would not be difficult to place your finger
on the real cause of the small production,
but in reviewing these years we would also
C. Alfred Wagner, President
Music Industries Chamber of Commerce
come to the conclusion that a greater in-
terest has been shown in the work of creat-
ing a desire on the part of the school chil-
dren for studying the piano—and perhaps a
greater work than has ever been done in a
like period before. Our Bureau for the Ad-
vancement of Music is very largely respon-
sible for this splendid work, but that Bureau
would never have been possible had it not
been for the great interest manifested by
the dealers throughout the country, or rather
by the piano manufacturers.
Therefore, with this work so splendidly
begun, I feel we can look forward, for 1931,
to a very much increased piano business over
that of 1930. In fact, the last three months
of this year there has been a marked in-
crease in interest on the part of piano deal-
ers throughout the country, and more work
is being done in direct selling.
We who manufacture know full well that
even in the most prosperous times of our
Hermann Irion, Steinway & Sons, New York.
When a little over a year ago the unprece-
dented crash in security values rocked our
industrial and commercial structure to its
very foundation, I expressed the opinion that
the effect of this crash would be severely.
felt by all business interests in this country
for some time to come. That apprehension
has been fully borne out by subsequent
events.
It seems to me still too early to predict
the resumption of normal business activity,
because in the meantime almost the entire
world has been drawn into the reaction. I
am hopeful that the coming year, 1931, may
show the beginning of a trend toward nor-
malcy, but I do not anticipate anything other
than a noticeable improvement over this
year's business. There are too many fac-
tors entering into the equation to make any-
thing more than that likely.
H. Edgar French, President, Jesse French &
Sons Piano Co., New Castle, Ind.
We are beginning to see a definite clear-
ing in the piano market in spite of the fact
that we are still receiving inquiries for pianos
at less than cost. There is no doubt in our
minds but what there is still some distressed
merchandise muddying the market, but the
number of inquiries coming in indicate that
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