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THE MUSIC TRADE REVIEW
AUGUST 30,
1924
THE POINT OF REVIEW
Rural Market Shows Revived Prosperity
HE rural market has come to its own again. Reports from
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every section of the country show that the farmer is once more
entering the retail market as a buyer in a way that has not existed
since immediately after the armistice. Good crops disposed of at
steadily increasing prices, combined with a heavy demand for prac-
tically all farm produce, have effectually changed the relative ratio
between the prices of what the farmer has to buy and what he has
to sell with the result that unquestionably this Fall he will have a
surplus for expenditures above his immediate needs which he has
not possessed since 1919. The past five years have been an ex-
ceedingly trying time for the average farmer with the result that
the manufacturers of the country, including those who make musi-
cal instruments, have been compelled to look for their primary
market to industrial and urban populations—a condition in this
country which is never healthy, for agriculture as yet remains our
primary industry.
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striking evidence of this revival in farm buying power
N O is more
to be had than that contained in a recent survey of rural
conditions conducted by the Agricultural Publishers' Association
which is based on questionnaires sent to country bankers and other
authorities in every section of the country. The replies received to
those were practically unanimous, all agreeing that the rural market
during the coming Fall and Winter should be one of the most pros-
perous.in the country, a condition which cannot help but be reflected
almost immediately in both industrial and urban centers as well.
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PON the Pacific Coast Washington stated that farm buying
will be appreciably better this Fall; Oregon, that farmers were
already buying spiritedly, and California, that buying conditions
were gaining rapidly. Among the Western States, Montana re-
ported business getting decidedly better; Colorado, farm buying will
be increased 75 per cent; New Mexico, farmers will buy 50 per
cent more than in the Fall of 1923; and Utah, that as crops come to
market at higher prices business conditions will improve in porpor-
tion. Among the Northwestern States, South Dakota stated that
farm buying power will be far greater; North Dakota, that farm
buying power will be very much better this Fall, and Minnesota,
that business conditions are fair to good with business men opti-
mistic. In the Central States, Ohio reported an increased farm buy-
ing power; Nebraska, a 50 per cent increase in this class; Missouri,
that farm buying power will exceed that of 1923; Michigan that
farmers will buy more; Kansas, that the farm buying power will be
double that of 1923; Illinois, that farmers will have greater buying
power; and Indiana, that farmers are in an exceptionally good
frame of mind and will be better buyers than during any similar
period of recent years. Among the Southwestern States Texas re-
ports real surplus money for farmers to spend; Oklahoma, 25 per
cent greater buying power than last year, and Arkansas, farmers
feeling better than at any time during the last four years. In the
South, Georgia reports increased buying activity in rural sections;
Virginia, farm buying power greatly in excess of 1923; Tennessee,
farmers are generally optimistic as to good times just ahead; North
Carolina, that farm buying power this Fall will be good; Mississippi,
100 per cent increase in farm buying power; Maryland, conditions
improving rapidly; and Florida, a continuance of the good condi-
tions already existing.
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OUNTRY banks generally report heavy deposits, so much so
that they are besieging their correspondent metropolitan banks
for commercial paper and other outlets for their rapid accumula-
tions ; Kansas City banks alone have made an increase of $20,000,-
000 in country deposits within a short period. The Commercial
National Bank of Chicago, which carries 32,000 commercial ac-
counts covering every branch of industry, states that the next few
months will develop a buying movement which is sure to have a
profound effect upon all branches of the commercial world. In
fact, all reports from country banks unite in declaring the rapid
increase in funds deposited with them by their clients, a sure sign
of the effect of both demand and price of farm products.
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' I A HE rural market itself and directly is of vast importance to the
•*- music industry, but still more important is the indirect reaction
of heavy agricultural buying upon the urban and industrial markets
for the industry. Allow agricultural buying to remain in a state of
stagnation and its reaction upon the general business health of the
country is almost immediate, for without exception in such a period
stagnation will follow there as well. On the contrary, a period of
activity in the rural market will bring a similar result in the urban
and industrial centers, a reflex of the manufacturing activity and the
demand for goods necessary to supply this.
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EARING all these facts in mind it is inevitable that the retail
music merchant during the coming Fall months will have a
heavy demand for the products which he handles, and a demand
which he will be in no condition to handle unless he trims his sails
to meet these changed conditions. At the present moment all infor-
mation available unites in declaring that stocks upon the dealers'
w'areroom floors are at an exceedingly low point, due in part to the
demand during the Spring months and in part to the fact that deal-
ers generally liquidated stocks without reordering save from hand
to mouth during the Summer months, a condition which was
reflected in increasing manufacturing activity at the primary points
of supply. As a consequence, once the Fall demand makes itself
apparent, and this will take place some time during the next month,
dealers' wareroom floors are likely to be swept clean of instruments,
and unless the dealer has already placed his orders for Fall sup-
plies he will be confronted by a scarcity that will result in many lost
sales. This is especially true of retail music merchants who have a
large farm clientele, for a sale lost, or rather delayed, to a customer
of this type will inevitably be a sale that will never be made.
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A DVICE to place Fall orders early is regarded by many retail
**• music merchants as inevitable with the coming of September
and, save where they have been taught by experience, they usually
disregard it to their own detriment. This year, however, conditions
are radically different than at any time during the past five years.
Despite the fact that it is the year of a presidential campaign, there
seems to be but little uncertainty regarding general prospects, due
largely to the fact that whatever change may take place in the
national administration, it will have little effect on the business out-
look, as that is a thing which is governed, at the present moment,
largely by economic causes beyond the control of any national
administration. A realization of this fact has changed the psycho-
logical condition of the business man considerably, which is already
reflected in the confidence to which he is looking to the Fall months.
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I A HE farmer comes into the market after a lapse of five years.
-*- This should mean a wide development of piano and player-
piano sal.es. The dealer who realizes this fact and who sets his
selling organization in movement at once is going to reap the fruits.
Despite rural stagnation there have been dealers who have done
remarkable businesses during this period with rural customers, but
they have been done by intensive selling and heavy exploitation.
Each sale has been a struggle requiring tenacity and stubbornness on
the part of both dealer and salesman. If these methods are con-
tinued, as they should be, and if more dealers adopt them, as all
can, sales should grow tremendously in volume and a healthy buying
condition confront the trade. But there will be little profit in all of
this unless the dealer has his stocks in condition to supply the
demand which the radical change in agricultural economy has
created for him, and which he is already beginning to feel, as
numerous reports to The Review during the past month have shown.
Remember, this Fall is going to be a time when a piano or a player
upon the wareroom floor will be worth ten on order in its maker's
factory.
T H E REVIEWER.