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MAY
19, 1923
THE
MUSIC
TRADE
REVIEW
For Those Who Are Crying "Wolf!"
Greatest Danger in the Present Economic Situation Those Who Are Over-pessimistic—Danger of Inflation
With Its Consequent Reaction Past According to Authoritative Banking Opinion—Conditions
in Piano Industry Show No Over-production, and Ordering Ahead Justified
It takes time to get used to prosperity, espe-
cially prosperity in the piano industry. For the
alarmist and the pessimist are both in constant
evidence among piano men and the type that
persists in seeing bad times getting worse and
good times going bad is entirely too frequent.
Since the beginning of the new year the piano
industry has enjoyed a good measure of solid
prosperity after a period of depression which
it shared in common with all other lines of
industrial production. The public has bought
readily, terms have been within reasonable
bounds, collections have generally been good,
and, as a result, the majority of the factories
have been working full time or better. The
only fly in the ointment has been a shortage
of skilled labor which has operated constantly
to curtail production beyond what the natural
demand could have absorbed.
Despite these conditions, the alarmist, with
his cry of boom business and his predictions
of over-production, has not been wanting.
With his watch-word of inflation and his proph-
ecies of a coming crash, he has done every-
thing possible to create overcaution and condi-
tions which would operate to curtail healthy
and sane expansion.
Inflation Danger Is Passed
Is the present demand a result of inflation
and is it likely to lead to a reaction which will
more than overcome the impetus that has been
given business? Those who are best qualified
to speak of it with authority agree generally
that, while there was such a danger two months
ago, business with credit in general has ad-
justed itself to the Jievv situation and to-day
the danger of such a happening is at a mini-
mum. The present selling condition is based
on a solid foundation of real demand, created
by labor being employed generally at good
wages and fair prospects of the rural sections
enjoying a period of relative prosperity. In
other words, authoritative banking circles de-
clare almost unanimously that the country has
passed the danger of inflation and that it has
before it a period of steady and sound progress
which is likely to last some time.
Production has reached a high mark in prac-
tically all lines of industry. But the consumer
has steadily absorbed this production and, save
for a slight seasonable variation, has come back
for inore. In the piano industry, for instance,
so far as can be gathered, there is no accumu-
lation of stock in the dealers' hands, nor is there
a large number of unfilled orders on the books
of the manufacturers. Current shipments are
practically taking all production and what
orders are unfilled carry delivery dates. In fact,
there has probably been greater future ordering
for Summer and Fall delivery than has been
the case in some time. But this has been justi-
fied on the part of the dealers, first, because
of the almost certainty of future demand, and,
second, because of coming readjustments in
wholesale prices. But this has not been a case
of over-expansion, nor is it likely to result in
the bane of the piano industry—cancellations.
The Coming Summer Season
if he fails to resist the temptation to lie down,
if he allows himself to be convinced that "pianos
can't be sold in Summer," he will suffer accord-
ingly. During the next three months the
monthly sales totals are largely in the dealers'
own hands.
In all this there is no attempt to disparage
sane caution. But that has been the prevailing
temper of the piano man, as well as the gen-
eral average of business men. There has been
no heavy plant expansion, such as is invariably
found in a period of inflation. Demands for
increased production have been met by existing
facilities, by their more efficient use and by
their better organization. The manufacturing
branch of the piano industry is more and more
turning its attention to this work and some of
the feats accomplished this year are remarkable.
But caution, when carried too far, is as bad
as recklessness. It prevents a man, whether
he be manufacturer or dealer, taking advantage
of sound opportunity. To risk nothing at all,
in a majority of cases, is to lose everything.
To refuse to see facts as they are and to
utilize them is to lack vision.
Authoritative Banking Opinion
It cannot be repeated too often that authori-
tative banking opinion to-day sees no danger
in the present situation. Those who have pre-
dicted inflation have occupied the front pages
of the newspapers; those who have analyzed
the situation as it really is—that is, fundamen-
tally sound—have been buried deep in the close
type of the financial sections where they can be
easily missed. And "front-page stuff" molds
opinion.
Typical of the prevailing conservative bank-
ing opinion is the following summary, pub-
lished by the Mechanics & Metals National
Bank of New York. It says:
"Compared with the latter part of 1922, the
volume of business is so large that in many
cases people have not been able to adjust them-
selves to the upswing and have wondered at
its real meaning. The change has been so com-
plete and has swept industry into such activity
that conservative minds have sought for extraor-
dinary reasons, and have in many cases come
to the conclusion that inflation is responsible
for the forward impetus under way. Although
the commercial banks of the country have ex-
tended credits in large volume, the increase
over last year is not sufficiently pronounced to
support the inflation theory."
The best of advice that can be given the
business man to-day, whether he be in the
piano industry or any other line of industrial
production and distribution, is to prepare for
a continuance of prosperity—that is, a steady,
consistent demand for the products of the
country's factories. It is no time for extrem-
ists, whether they are pessimistic or optimistic,
for both are equally dangerous. But it is a
time for sane optimism—a frame of mind that
is justified by every fact in the situation.
In short, the most dangerous factor at the
present time is not the over-optimistic—it is the
eternal cry of "Wolf!"
GIMBEL SECURES SCHAFF AGENCY
F. F. STORY IN NEW YORK
Well-known House Will Handle This Line in
Milwaukee—Curtis S. Miller Pleased With
the Arrangement
Congratulates District Manager Schoenewald
on the Success of Sales Quota Campaign
Of course, the usual Summer falling-off is
likely to come. But there is nothing to fear
in this. Piano men who have carefully studied
the territories in which they sell state almost
with unanimity that demand is likely to be good
during the Summer months. The question here
is largely one of selling methods. If the dealer
will keep his selling force on its toes and will
go after the business just as he does in the
Fall, Winter and Spring, unquestionably June,
July and August will make good records. But
GARDEN CITY, KAN., May 15.—-The Garden City
Music Co. is the name of a new music concern
organized here recently on East Laurel street.
The business will be under the management of
C. M. Rose and C. H. Taylor.
Announcement was made this week by Curtis
S. Miller, vice-president of the Schaff Bros.
Piano Co., Huntington, Ind., of a deal which
was just consummated whereby Gimbel Bros.,
Milwaukee, Wis., have taken over the entire
line of Schaff Bros, pianos and player-pianos
and henceforth will represent it in Milwaukee
and vicinity.
The line includes the Schaff Bros, models,
which are now being produced in the two-tone
finish, which is an innovation introduced by
this company during the last six months.
"We regard this as an excellent connection,"
said Mr. Miller, this week, "for our instruments
and feel that Gimbel Bros, will give us splendid
representation in the Milwaukee territory. They
have also expressed themselves as highly
pleased with the Schaff Bros, product and ex-
pect to use our line as one of their leaders in
a prominent and active way."
The Schaff Bros. Co., which has been manu-
facturing pianos for over half a century, is pro-
ducing at the present time a variety of attractive
models, both in pianos and player-pianos.
GARDEN CITY CO. FORMED
The stock of instruments and music supplies
of the U. J. Dietrich store in Bremen, Ind.,
has recently been purchased by Hubert Tanner,
proprietor of the Tanner Music Store in
Plymouth, Ind.
F. F. Story, treasurer of the Story & Clark
Piano Co., made a short trip to New York
recently and was recalled to Chicago on the
second day of his visit on account of urgent
matters at the factory. Mr. Story extended his
congratulations to L. Schoenewald, branch man-
ager for the New York district, for the splendid
showing made in a quota campaign during the
past month. The campaign has been extended
to include May and general sales meetings, at
which representatives from the five retail stores
in the New York territory are present, are held
weekly in the West Thirty-second street branch.
The quota set for this month is at least sixty
pianos higher than last year's record for May,
and from the latest indications the campaign
is accomplishing its purpose.
McPHAlL AT THE CONVENTION
Line to Be Exhibited at Hotel Drake During
the Week of June 4 to June 9
BOSTON, MASS., May 14.—-Lawrence Barry, presi-
dent of the A. M. McPhail Piano Co., of this
city, reports that orders have been exceptionally
good. The factory of the company is very
busy taking care of these demands. This good
business is in no small sense a result of the
energetic sales efforts put into effect by the
executives of the company this year. Impor-
tant plans are being made for the convention.
The McPhail piano will be well exhibited in
Chicago at the Drake Hotel. An attractive
exhibit has been planned on the mezzanine
floor, Room 17, where the line will be shown
under the able direction of John J. Clark, treas-
urer, and Harry W. Crooker, vice-president of
the company.