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THE
MUJIC TRADE
VOL. LXXI. No. 24
Published Every Saturday by Edward Lyman Bill, Inc., at 373 4th Ave., New York.
Dec. 11, 1920
Single Copies 10 Cent*
$2.00 Per Tear
HIS is not the season for predictions and prophecies, for a perfectly good and sound opinion
one day may, through the sudden altering of circumstances, be absolutely without value
the next. Each individual has his own views as to what the next twelve months will have
to ofTer in the matter of business. The majority are optimistic, or at least in a mood to
watch developments without undue worry, but it must be confessed that there are quite a
few pessimists who, while hoping for the best, seem to expect the worst.
A man of broad business sense said not so long ago that the question of the average business
man's success during 1921 will be largely in his own hands, for upon the manner in which he viewed
existing situations, guessed the future and made preparations and plans accordingly depended the preser-
vation and development of his business.
The year 1920 is not going out in a blaze of glory, so far as business is concerned, and it is
unnecessary to refer at this time to the present attitude of the public and of retail merchants towards
buying. Although the music industry has not suffered nearly so much as many other lines of business
more directly connected with bodily comforts and necessities, it has nevertheless felt the effect of this
reaction in no unmistakable manner. For the first time in a number of years factory surpluses are found
to consist of finished products rather than of unfilled orders. Although buying and business have slowed
down, they have not stopped, nor will they.
The public is buying and will buy in accordance with its
immediate requirements at least. This means the movement of retail stock, and although it may be slow
it is but a question of time when these retail stocks must be replenished. There may or may not be a material
readjustment in prices. Certainly there are enough musical instrument manufacturers standing pat
on prices to prevent such a movement becoming general in the trade.
It is certain that manufacturers are not going to carry all the burden and build up a greater reserve
stock to meet the sudden demands of the retailers when their current stocks have been depleted. Next
year—and early next year, at that—there must be a demand upon factories for goods to stock ware'room
floors.. The real test of the situation will come when these replenishment orders are sent in.
All interests are agreed that a readjustment of conditions and prices is bound to come and may
be actually under way, and, although each individual has his own opinion as to how this readjustment can
be, or will be, brought about, there is no questioning the fact that it must be handled right along the line—
that the farmer, the worker, the merchant and the manufacturer must each bear his part of the burden
and take a loss for the purpose of stabilizing economic conditions. There need be no fear of sudden and
strenuous deflation in the piano trade, because there has been little or no inflation. It becomes, therefore,
a question of watching other lines of industry so that business in general may be properly gauged.
Judging conditions as they now stand, and studying past performances for what they are worth,
it is evident that both the confirmed optimist and the persistent pessimist are taking the wrong stand,
for too much optimism, which may encourage carelessness, is just as liable to lead the business man into
trouble as does a spirit of pessimism that makes him resigned to whatever may happen.
The business man during 1921 has need of clear vision, a level head, courage and the energy to go
after the business that for the past few years has been coming to him. It will be a year of salesmanship,
for even now there are few complaints regarding, business troubles from organizations that are carrying
out real dyed-in-the-wool sales campaigns.
A fitting slogan for the New Year would be: "Work Hard, Move Fast and Watch Your Step."
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