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THE
RENEW
ffUJIC TIRADE
VOL. LXIII. No. 4 Published Every Saturday by the Estate of Edward Lyman Bill at 373 4th Ave., New York, July 22, 1916
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Not the Time to Cultivate Pessimism
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ESPTTE the great prosperity which this country is now enjoying, and which is demonstrated so
emphatically by the figures gotten out by the Government officials, there is still an undercurrent of
pessimism prevailing in the business world which is based very largely on the assumption of "what
will happen after the great European war."
This looks like borrowing trouble, but as a people we are constitutionally built that way. We have a
habit of discounting our success, commercially and otherwise, and it is a trait that should not be encouraged.
It indicates a nervous, uneven mental condition that does not bode well for us as a people, or as a nation.
While the war in Europe has brought about an increased condition of prosperity in this country, due
to large export shipments, yet the fact remains that, war or no war, we were on the eve of a long spell of
better times when this catastrophe broke out in Europe, simply because fundamental conditions were right.
The close of the war in Europe will undoubtedly have a bearing on this country commercially, and many
changes will occur that will call for quick action and sound thinking. But it is hardly wisdom on the part
of any one to inject too large a percentage of pessimism into statements regarding what may occur when
the European war is ended.
One need not be a prophet, or the son of a prophet, to indulge in conjectures and predictions—it is a
privilege in the possession of all.
We believe, however, that reason and facts are a much more reliable basis on which to build conclusions.
If any one feels uneasy about the future of the country, it will be well for him to sit down and con-
template our financial, agricultural and export conditions.
With the fiscal year ended June 30, the foreign trade of the United States reached the unprecedented
amount of $6,525,000,000; this is $2,108,025,000 greater than the foreign trade of the country last year.
As a matter of fact, the increase is greater than the entire foreign trade of the United States of 1900, when
we first crossed the two billion mark. Consider that the increase in exports for the year ended June 30
was $1,576,411,000, and that the increase in imports was $541,025,000. No other year in our history shows
such huge totals.
It is true that a great part of this export trade was due to the unusual demands from Europe, but it
must also be remembered that the value of these exports remains here, and that at no time in the history
of our country has our financial balance been so large or our financial affairs so satisfactory, or so healthy.
Then, again, the agricultural situation, which a month ago looked somewhat disheartening, due to the
continuous rains, shows a most remarkable improvement, with the result that the value of the farm products
for 1916 will reach an enormous sum—not as large as last year, it is true, but as large as some of our very
best and most prosperous years.
Now, with these facts to bank on, it does not look as if this is going to be a lean year, or that we need
worry unduly about the country's future, or that manufacturing establishments will have to close down for
lack of business.
This is not the time to cultivate pessimism. Those who are inclined to view the future through smoked
glasses should cheer up.
Nothing can be gained by seeing the "blue" side of things. Life is largely what we choose to make
it, and as. far as the future is concerned, we may make it a success or a failure. It depends in a great degree
on our own efforts.
The pessimist rarely makes a conspicuous success of life, not that the potentialities are lacking, but simply
because of the reason that he lacks the means to develop them.
(Continued on page 5)