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n i IP T r D p J f?
THE
MUJIC TFADE
V O L . LXI. N o . 25 Published Every Saturday by Edward Lyman BUI at 373 Fourth Ave., New York, Dec. 18,1915
SING
^OO C PER ES V£AR ENTS
Where the Getting Is Good.
ES, we are reaching the point where the getting is good, and it would seem as if this specially
favored land would enjoy, for a period at least, a pleasant encounter with the fickle Dame
Fortune, whose coquettish attitude at times sends thrills down the trade vertebrae.
Yet, while the getting is good and is liable to be better, it is an excellent time in which
to make soundings and see just what kind of dangers may be threatening the business passage.
There are always problems, some of w T hich are not so easy of solution, but they have to be faced
just the same.
Indications point with unerring accuracy to a steadily rising cost tide in both the manufacturing,
selling and retail departments.
This condition perhaps is primarily due to the upsetting of the whole commercial fabric by
the great European war.
There is no part of the world that is not affected in some form by this titanic struggle which
is steadily consuming Europe's resources of men and material.
Just how long this condition is going to continue no man may predict with certainty, because
there is no one gifted with powers sufficient to tell just exactly when the war clouds will part and
the blue sky of peace will again be over the stricken lands of Europe.
In the meanwhile men in almost every line of trade must face new conditions—conditions
materially changed by the stoppages of supplies from other sections. There is no business exempt,
so far as I know, and the enormous rise in some specialties will, of course, make imperative entirely
new price schedules, just as soon as old contracts have expired.
This increase in cost of materials cannot be offset sufficiently by improvements in factory
machinery and organization. There has been a tremendous improvement in this particular, and
the crude machinery and methods of ten years ago have all been superseded by cheaper and more
efficient factory equipments, so that costs in many instances have been materially lowered, but this
refinement of factory equipments will not be sufficient to equalize the tremendous advances which
have been made in raw materials.
The basic metals have all advanced—some have doubled in price, and with the variable market
conditions, there is no reason to believe that there will be any decrease in cost of materials until
after the close of the war.
Manufacturing methods can, in many instances, be advantageously improved, and a revision of
factory systems will mean a decrease of cost in finished products. But, broadly speaking, even an
entire remodeling of antiquated factory methods will not place business institutions in a position to
supply finished products on former price schedules.
Every man in business to-day must exercise a vigilant oversight to stop leaks wherever possible.
There are undoubtedly wastes which may be eliminated, but to maintain manufacturing and
selling organizations means an overhead expense that cannot be dodged even in dull times, because
impairing a factory or selling organization means reduced efficiency. And, I view the trade situation
to-day as one full of perplexities—perhaps many more than we usually face at the close of a year.
In my opinion, manufacturers will be forced to increase their prices during the New Year, pro-
vided, of course, the same fundamental conditions exist which envelop the material market at the
present time.
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