credit situation is still normal and not a
cause for alarm, bu t that present ra te of
increase should be watched.
The most optimisti c view of the present
credit and loan situation comes from sav·
ings and loan banks; they have been able
to meet the heavy demand for loans from
current receipts and have not had to dip
into reserves; they foresee continued low
interest rates and longer terms.
CONSTRUCTION- The boom stage in
new hom es is still on and th e experts say
it will continue through th e year ; financ·
in g seems ample on favorabl e terms. Op-
erators will be interested in the gove rn-
ment report that in April contracts for
business buildings began to make good
gains, j umping 137 per cent in that month
above April 1949.
CROP REPORTS-Most r eports in early
June continued favorabl e for bi g crops,
but it was still too early for crop news to
start a lower price trend on commodities.
The usual summer drought months are still
to be fa ced also.
EMPLOYMENT-At th e time of this
review the nation was encouraged by the
government reports for April and May
gains in total employm ent. The unemploy-
ment total in May dropped to a low for 13
months; the closing of schools and the
usual summer slack was expected to halt
the upward climb in total jobs temporarily
at least. Good news for operators was the
report that factory layoffs in April were the
lowest sin ce 1948 ; only about 18 workers
in 1,000 met layoffs in April this year com-
pared with 28 in 1,000 in April 1949. Fac-
tories are reported to be hiring new work-
ers at about the rate of 35 per 1,000 for
the first five months of thi s year. One
financial pap er reviews the situation by re-
ferring to "startling improvements in em-
ployment since March."
The number of teen-agers and of mar-
ried women ' seeking employment has
greatly in creased. Th e annual gain in total
number of workers is now put at 1,000,000
persons and reports say the gain in total
number of jobs is n ot that fast.
FOREIGN AID-This item is listed be-
cause it is important in the national busi-
ness pi cture and in furnishing business to
many factories. Later reports will show
what Congress does in' appropriating fund s
for increased foreign aid.
FREIGHT- Congress passed the O'Ma-
honey freight absorption bill which is said
to clarify the situa tion on selling goods at
delivered prices. It was a vi ctory for large
industries that had been expected.
INVENTORIES ~ Inventory buying by
fa ctories made real gains in May and the
rate was expected to continue through
June; firm s are said to be buying for longer
periods ahead now. Some thought the in-
creased buying was to catch up from the
steel and coal strikes ; firms are buying all
the steel they can get and even buying in
black markets. Rising price trends in-
creased the pace of inventory buying also.
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INCOME- A governm ent report shows
consumer income in March at th e $212,000,-
000,000 a year level, the gain being chiefly
in wages and salaries. Factory pay rate
climbed for five 1j1onths, reachin g average
weekly r ate of $56.89 in April, about $3
higher than a year ago. Increase was
largely due to longer work weeks, the
average in April runnin g at about 39.7
hours per week. An official report reveal ed
the serious fact, however, that output per
worker has been boosted by cost-cuttin g
machines and causes sh ifts in employment.
Output per worker is gaining fa ster than
the r ate of incr ease in jobs. Farm income
is . off considerably.
MATERIALS - Operators' ho pes for
even.tually low-priced machines are not be-
ing encouraged by the materials pi cture
-especially by the trend in prices of
metals. The price trend is definitely up-
ward. One report has the encouraging news
that the boom in metals may level off dur-
ing the summer. But ri sin g prices for
nearly all metals has led a general price
rise in many commodities and the effects
of the high cost of materials last for many
months. Reports of a tight steel supply
increase and some industri es are already
buying ah ead for September and find the
supply shortage increasing, with slower de-
liveries. Most reports say ma teri als prices
will increase for several months yet.
PROFITS-Corporation profits are still
on a rising trend which started late in
1949 ; the rate is still far behind the top
profit year of 1948, however. The cash divi-
dend total paid by corporations is also
increasing. The trend of 1949 still holds
- the increase in profits and dividends is
chiefly among larger firm s.
PRODUCTION-The two principal ba-
rometers published by business firms show
the level 'o f production increasing steadily
for most industries. Early this year factory
orders hit a postwar record for dollar vol-
ume and the rate is still rising. Industri al
output has increased for five straight
months, boosted by home building and in-
ventory buying. The output level is about
25 poi nts above the low point of last July.
Industries still on the low side are farm
equipment, shipbuil ding, railroads, coal
mining, textiles and others.
PRICES-Many said during the reces-
sion last year that prosperity can only be
maintained by high price levels. Th e price
level is now rising along wi th the increases
in general busin ess. Food prices are on a
risin g trend, although on May 15 official
reports showed the food price level to be
slightly below one year ago. Farm prices
are ri sing but the price level for farm
products in April and May was still below
parity.
It seems that th e price level had held
fairly steady for eight month s, then a slow
increase of about one point a week set in.
The experts do not expect a runaway in
price advances but th ey do expect the price
level to continue to rise for some months.
RETAIL TRADE - Retail trade gen-
erally is not gaining along with the boom,
except on building materials and appli-
ances. One trade magazine predicted that
June trade, would probably ho-ld even with
last year. Latest government report shows
such locations as fi lling stations and drug
stores holding on a level with last year,
while grocery stores, ea ting and drinking
places and others are below th e sam e time
last yeat in dollar volume.
WAR AND DEFENSE- Congress seems
certain to in crease the total outlay of gov-
ernment money for all phases of the de-
fense program, and business is stimulated
thereby. Reports on the actual probability
of a shooting war are too confusing to draw
conclusions.
A survey among small-town newspapers
in one state recently found nearly all of
them suggesting a shooting war with Rus-
sia after the U. S. plane wa s shot down
over the Baltic recently. If this is typical
sentiment for the nation, it will have a
powerful influence on Congress. None of
the small n ew s pap er~ mentioned that the
U. S. plane shot down was known to be
spying on Russian fortifica tions. It would
be impossible to estimate how much of th e
present boom can be credited to war and
defense plans but it is a definite part of
the picture.
The outlook is that the stimulus to busi-
ness from outlays for military and allied
purposes will continue for a long time, and
this fact may stave off any recession in
the next year or so.
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