BUSINESS REVIEW
(Contiuueli from page 9)
number of conservative leaders say that
pr ice deflation is not over yet, althou gh the
price level has recently made slight ga ins.
The feeli ng that prices will deflate furthel·
seems to hin ge a good deal on th e outlook
for bumper yields in major crop s, with
corn bei ng considered the key to th e price
si tu a tion dur i ng th e next few months. It
will be recalled that recess ion hit farm
prices ea rl y in 1948, and in the view of
this writer set in motion the postwar ad-
justment downward th at has been under
way for more than a year.
Th e sign s for a real fall pickup in busi-
ness a re considered table and include a
majority of those factors that are sa id to
determine the co urse of prosperity. If a new
break occurs, it is likely to be due to a
dec ided crash in prices. Busin ess is depend-
ing much on holiday trade in December
also, and if prospects hold favorabl e for th e
1~
ZJ~
FROM STOCK!
I
•
UNZEL
ushback Wire
18 or 20 Strand
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Color Combinations
Pushback wire. for many years one of
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!'he wide variety of color combination.
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of wiring harness-to meet any require-.
dients of the industry.
,",oin machine service organizations and
distributors are invited to write for com-
plete information as to how they may
better serve their trade by furnishing
them with RUNZEL quality wire.
J- •. ~
Manufacturers of coin machines may
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efficient wiring harness.
$end us your specifications for
Inter·Comm Cable.
RUNZEL
Cord and W·
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12
Ire Co
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..1. SE
ILL. AVE .
next month as is now indicated. the year
EXPORTS-The monetary co nference of
should close ,"ery favorably. Employment
5 ., British and Canadia n reI resentatiYes
got a good boost in August, in good tim e
is expected to have some re
to crea te olltimism for the fall month s.
trade, but is not expected to ope n British
and Canad ian markets to coin machines.
The general business sentim ent in Sep-
Oflicial reports on coin machine expo rts are
tember ha s been aptly called "ca utious busi-
always late; exports of music and ve nding;
ness opt imism ."
machin es made good !(a ins in May over
A r eview of th e many reports on business
Apri l, and Cuba, Venezuela, Mexico and
trend s an·d cond iti ons follows:
Panama led as buying; cou ntri es in the order
AUTOS- Th e auto industry held during
nam ed.
the summ er as one of th e solid est props
CONSTRUCTION - Total constru ction
of th e nation ' business, aiding steel to hold
put in place in August was 3 per ce nt above
at a high level. eptember was a test month
July, but 2 per cen t below Au~. 1948; hos-
for th e a uto trad e sin ce demand normally
pital and institutional buildin~ was running
drops; too big a decl in e in demand means
consid erably above last year: building of
cu ts in production in ovember, and some
private soc ial and recreational buildin~s was
predict even in October. Studebaker tarted
also showi ng in creases. But commercial and
parade o( 195fl models, with at least three
indu trial building was down about 35 per
other makers ex pected to follow befo re the
cent from Aug. 1948, and also declined from
year ends; cha nges are chi efly in body
July to August. For th e first ei~ ht months
style, not mu ch in motors or prices. Pre-
of the year, private co nstru ction was 6 per
diction is that a genera l markdown on 1950
cent below last year, but puhlic co nstruction
ca rs will not co me, but lower· priced models
howed a gain of 30 per cen t. Early in Sep-
will be pu hed. Used ca r market has held
tember, co nstru ction co ntracts were showing
hi gher than expected, prices well above pre-
a decided gain over the same period last
war ratio, but big drop is still expected.
year.
BANKS-The Labor Day period inter-
GASOLINE- Final report on summ er
rupted money flow, in creas in g money in
tourist use were not available. Primary sup-
circu lation, bank clea rin gs gai ning above
pli ers reported demand from distributors
th e same week last year; demand deposits
was mnning only sli ghtly abo\'e last year
gained rece ntl y but were still below a year
durin~ July and August. Prices have ad-
ago and also a mon th ago. Total personal
vanced on fue l oils, which should relieve
il)come began to decl in e in July, although
any pres ure for price increa es on gasolin e.
total for th e first seven months of the year
wa s well above th e same period last year;
GOVERNMENT MONEY - E timates
farm in come decline was chief item in the
place total spending of fede ral , state and
July drop. Savings accounts indi cate that
local governments thi s yea r wi ll be close to
co nsumers have about $127,000,000,000 in
69 billi on dollars, Federal cash going to
liquid buying power.
bu~jness thi s liscal year i estima ted at
20,308,000,000, while federal cash going
BUSINESS FIRMS - Failures showed
to individuals in various ways is put at
the usua l decline in th e Labor Day w,eek,
$26,098,000,000. All the income of all th e
but rate is till well above the rate in 1947
people ten years ago was not much more
and 1948, but below 1940 rate. MaT)l(fjl~tur
than what governments will spend thi s
ing and who lesa lin g firm s have ~ecently
slowed in rate of fail ures, while in creases.· ,year. On e financial paper says '·business is
occur chi efly i,) retail and co nstru ction
to get a special shot in the arm of govern -
trades.
ment cash during the first half of 1950 ...
test for business will come when expendi-
_. CROP REPORTS-These ' repo rts took
tures ease." The heavy spe nding plan are
on dec id ed importan ce d urin ~ September
sa id to put a damper on tax cut hope next
a nd on major p·QPS were·,eo nsidered gen-
year.
era ll y favo~apl eto the nation. Although
INVENTORIES- In\entory trends have
bumper yie lds may res ult in heavy pressure
assumed new im portance in the general
on prices~ .e.no·ugh to bri ng abou t a price
business picture. As mentioned in the intro-
crash. Covetn' l{~lll support of farm prices
duction, some have called recent trends an
is also under 1;evei·e te t.
" inventory recession." Question s now are
EMPLOYMENT - On e official report
whether inven tories ha\ e reached bottom,
~I! id a- ': t,.rtling" pickup in employm ent
and wh ether recen t increased buying i only
oC,GJ\rred (n Au~u~t, as compared with June
temporary or whether the trend is perma-
aJld July. The ga m were sa id to be more
nent. Industrial buying, also reta il, is st ill
_ than seasQn.aJ. Opera tors of coin ma chines
on 30-day or less policy.
. will al o, l)"e "iilte.rested in th e fact that most
MATERIALS-Attenti on ce nters chi efly
of t)wfncrease w~"s in non-farm workers, th
on steel; demand and output has shown
rate being . t.hree times greater than in th e
increases recently, aided strongly by th e
same per'iod last year; fa cto ries, stores and
auto industry. Settlement of th e steel in-
mills repo'rted in creases. Employment pic-
dustry wage dispute spread optimism in
ture varies widely in d iffe rent lo calities, of
more ways than one. Pm·chasin!! agents
co urse, wit h a number of cities and a few
recently reported there is no problem now
sta te st ill having a rea l unemploym ent
in getting materials and delivery, although
prob lem.
a few materials have shown price increases:
but increases are balanced by reductions.
uppliers have reported that demand for
many materials is below normal.
POWER- On e report says that use of
electric power is an im portant index to gen-
eral business-and that total u e of power
ha been running 3 to 4 per cent above a
year ago, although showing sig;ns of small
declines in August.
PROFITS-Indu try profits in general
are now known to h ave declined for the
first h alf of the year-fir t general down-
ward trend since the end of the war. Per-
centa ge of decline is small but the trend
seems to be definite for the year.
PRODUCTION-Reports on production
are being studied very carefully to· note
trends. Demand started an increase in out-
BELL·O·MATIC·~39
COIN MACHINE REVIEW