Coin Machine Review (& Pacific ...)

a fact that may decide the general course
of business later. Some predict that big
crops may result in a final and decided
crash in all prices; prices have tended to
come down very slowly but a crash in farm
prices this year would be expected to speed
a general decline. The outlook can change,
however. Most recent reports on peanut
prospects have turned unfavorable, and
there is a real hortage on some citrus
juices.
EMPLOYMENT - Attention centers on
industrial and factory employment; the
total employment in factories is still very
high, but down from the peak and is still
declining. Industrial plants simply did not
make the spring revival that had been
hoped for. Total unemployment has not
reached a point to cause alarm, but it now
seems certain the peak in total number of
employed has been passed. At the end of
April, employment in factories had declined
for the seventh consecutive month.
During May a slackening in factory lay·
offs was reported, but mass vacations duro
ing the summer will check factory work.
The experts in guessing on the outlook:-
in 1950 they predict one worker in 10 will
be unemployed; in 1938 one person in five
who wanted to work could not find a joh;
in 1933 one person in four could not find a
jof>.
EXPORTS - South Africa and Brazil
have been forced to tighten on imports reo
cently. Hence, export possibilities show de·
clines thus far in 1949.
GASOLINE - Congress is investigating
the gasoline price situation. The oil in·
dustry has cut crude oil production con·
siderably to prevent a price crash on fuel
oils. But the industry is divided on the
gasoline price issue; all say gas prices
should be increased but fear that the pub·
lic would not accept the increase. About
40 per cent of the crude oil output goes
into gasoline.
GOVERNMENT MONEY -Federal
spending after July 1 is expected to climb
from about $40,000,000,000 a year to $42,.
000,000,000. Cuts in spending may be voted
by the next Congress. Government loans to
business are gaining in importance. One
report says: "The right contact in Wash·
ington, and there's a loan to keep a busi·
ness going." State governments paid out
10,400,000,000 in the last fiscal year, add·
ing that much to the flow of government
money.
MATERIALS - Recent weeks have
brought a series of reports on price declines
in metals and other materials needed by
industry. Even steel is included in the
list to show declines. Cost of building mao
terials, however, is reported to be stiffening
after a period of decline.
POWER-Use of electric power is fol·
lowed to show the variations in different
regions, most reports saying that curtail·
ment in factory work accounts for declines.
At the end of April, use of power for the
U. S. was running about 6 per cent above
the like period a year ago. But the New
England and middle Atlantic tates had
shown declines as compared with a year
ago. The states west of Omaha had the
highest gains in use of power. During May
the reports began to show more extended
decline in use of power, said to be due
to factory curtailment. Use of power had
made steady gains since the end of the
war.
PROFITS-The trend thus far this year
seems to follow last year's pattern-large
firms are making a much better rate of
profit than smaller industries and firms. Re·
cent government report on profits last year
shows manufacturing industries as a whole
making an average profit gain of about 14
per cent above 1947; oil companies, auto
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manufacturers, steel companies and metal
suppliers in general had highest gains in
profit margin.
PRODUCTION-Trends in factory out·
put have been covered in other parts of
this review. Factory output is on the de·
cline and is one of the chief concerns in
the national business picture at the present
time. The declines vary considerably with
different industries and also in the different
sections of the U. S. The regional differ·
ences in business will get more attention
in the months ahead.
PRICES-The most important price
trend at the present time is the decline in
metals, including steel. Reverses in price
trends can occur quickly. A month ago
meat prices were leading in the decline on
foods; the most recent report says meat
prices are climbing fast. The average of
farm prices has been declining one per
cent or more each month this year. On the
whole price situation, one business au·
thority says: "Business is stalled in a price
war between buyers and sellers. A struggle
over prices is slowing business just now.
The price decline, when completed, will
leave business in a position to move ahead
again, to go on to real prosperity."
A year ago consumers were making the
biggest stir about prices. Now, the battle
over prices seems to be in business circles.
Purchasing agents say that firms will buy
slowly until the price adjustment move has
run its course. In May, price drops were
reported on 36 major commodities.
RETAIL TRADE-Official reports are
available on department store sales and
these are chiefly interesting for the varia·
tions they show in trade in different terri·
tories. For the last week in May, depart-
ment store sales for the nation showed an
8 per cent drop; heaviest decline for the
week was in the Denver area; for the year
an average decline of 3 per cent has been
shown by department stores. Chain store
and mail order sales began to show de·
clines in April. Operators will be inter·
ested in the government report on trade in
April which said that eating and drinking
places had a nice pickup in trade during
that month; food· stores have also shown
gains.
An important fact ahout retail trade is
that reports deal with dollar volume, and
the decline in prices makes the dollar vol.
ume look much worse than it really is.
Generally, trade in retail stores is holding
up better than had been anticipated--even
if dollar volume has been cut by lower
prices. People are buying more than had
been predicted.
TAXES - Tax legislation was dropped
from the must list, as Congress began to
plan for the summer vacation.
TRA VEL-Early reports on summer
travel how declines from last year; esti·
mates vary from 10 to 25 per cent decline.
Railroads have asked for an increase in
passenger fare.
Visit your Distributor regularly for first hand
news about the latest Gottlieb Releases.
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1140·1150 North Kostner Avenue
Chicago 51, Illinois
JULY, 1949
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