Coin Machine Review (& Pacific ...)

Issue: 1949 August

selling of them to location own er were
outl ined. It wa s resolved th at all shuffl e-
board loca tion s be equipped with scorin g
boards, eith er sold direct to th e loca tion or
provided as a volum e builder by th e oper-
ator him self.
" What Shall We Do About Legislative
Measures Being Ta ken Agai nst Shuffie-
board? " wa s the ti tle of a n engro sin g re-
port by Joe A. Ro ge rs, St. Loui s, counsel
for the TSAA. Ro gers indi ca ted th a t shuf-
Aeboa rd to date has had little resistance.
Any criti cism can be met, he stressed, by
th e holdin g of tourn aments, publicizin g of
the gam e as a s port and d iversion, an d
good public relations.
Th e con vention clo ed with man y deci-
sions left open, and subject to a pproval a t
anoth er meet to be held August 1 a nd 2
in Chi cago, wh en manufa cturers, wh o
asked time to study th e associa tion more
closely, will determin e th e ir finan cial co-
operat ion and posit ion in the association.
BUSINESS REVIEW
( Contin u ed/rom Page 7 )
"atched by many as a barometer of business
in general. Governm ent spending is to be
s peeded up in spi te of all tal k of economy.
All sorts of op inion s can be had on what
has happened, and what may be expected
durin g the rest of th e year. Th e busin ess of
every operator is tied defini tely to wha t does
happe n during th e next five month s.
Surveys of th e opinions of bus ine s lead -
ers suggest that th e rece sion is probably
h alf over ; tha t som e industr ies have alrea dy
adju sted to the right level ; that the total
recess ion will not be as great as that of
1920·21 ; that a broad a nd general uptrend
will start early in 1950.
Pr ices are still th e cru cial pivot in the
ge neral pi cture. One promin ent bus in ess
journal says the water ha not yet all been
queezed out of pri ces, that too many pri ce
reductions have b~e n only " tok en" redu c-
tion s, that declin es in raw mate rial s costs
have not been passe d on to co nsum ers a
fa st as th ey shou ld, tha t the reces ion will
last until buyers feel that pri ces have
reached bottom.
I ndustrial and busin ess firm s a re stagin g
more of a buyers' strik e than th e consum in g
publi c.
All of th e experts seem to ag ree th at
when busin ess has found its adjustm e nt
level (by next Janu ary ) , th e vo lum e of
business will be hi gh a bove th e 1940 level.
Such a : retai l tra de will be 160 per ce nt
above 1940, person al in com e about 160 per
cent above 1940, cost of livin g a bout 60 per
cent above 1940. This conse n us of opinion
gives a ve ry optimi ti c vi ew of th e future.
A review of so me of th e many current re-
ports on th e busin ess pi cture follow s :
AUTOM OBILES- The auto industry is
still listed as on e of the bri ghtest spots in
th e busin ess pi cture, a bi g pro p to th e
nation a nd bolste rin g th e steel industry.
Produ cti on has been running at th e highes t
r ate in 20 years, with season al decl ine ex-
pected in Se ptember. ales of used ca rs had
a n earl y umm er pu rt. Demand for new
cars is holdin g at hi gh levels. Tool and di e
makers re port that new body designs are
bein.,g ru shed for new models early nex t
year ; re ports uggest that competitio n may
fin ally begin to wor k a mong ca r makers to
develop more chan ges in the 1950 mod els.
B ANK S- Bus in ess loans continue to de-
cli ne but the rea ons for it are considered
favorab le. Dema nd de posits also show slight
declines. Ba nkers ar e said to hold the view
that busin ess activity will decline durin g
th e year. T he F ederal Reserve Board re-
centl y di sturbed ba nkin g circles by its new
poli cy whi ch tends to lowe r in terest rates
and expand credit. Government poli cy is
now sa id to be one of expandin g credit to
ease th e recession. A im of the Rese rve
Board is said to be to halt th e recession in
six mont hs.
Official re ports show th a t 96 per cent of
bank de posit accounts a re for $5,000 or Ie s,
and th a t 98 per cent are under $10,000.
B US I NESS F IRMS - Latest report on
new firm s is for May ; in that month there
was a sli ght in crease in new in corporation s
over th e precedin g month but a dec rease
from May one yea r ago. For th e first fi ve
month s of 1949 a total of 36,623 new in cor-
poration s were reported for th e na tion: thi s
total shows a progressive dec lin e from 1946,
wh en new firm s reached a peak ra te. T he
record for fi ve month s of 1949 was al so
a bo ut 20 per cent below th e same period in
1948. Busin e s fa ilures have decreased in
number rece ntly, comp a red with a month
ago, are a bout twi ce th e rate in 1948 and
now gell ing up towa rd the 1941 average.
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Th e Federal Reserve Board recentl y is-
ued a special report, based on a study of
300 firm s, indi ca ting th at ra tio of assets to
li a bilities has been declinin g sin ce 1947-
more so with small firm s th an large on es.
CR E DIT - Previou sly ment ioned is th e
rece nt chan ge in governm ent poli cy to en-
courage wider use of cred it rath er th a n re-
tri ct it. En co urage ment of greater use of
credit and expiration of credit co ntrols is
considered as a move to ease th e recess ion.
CO NSTR UCTION - Th e high level of
co nstru ction ac tivity, althou gh declin es a re
showin g up in residenti al and bu iness
buildin gs, is hail ed as on e of th e main busi-
ness props of th e country. An offi cial report,
more recent than our last issue, estimates
th at busin ess hui lding thi s year may decline
as much as 18 per cent below th e total of
1948. Total publi c constructi on this year,
however, is exp ected to put the grand total
for all construction above th e pea k of last
year.
Buildin g of new fa ctories, expansion, etc.,
is expected to fall about 28 per cent below
last year ; building of stores, restaurants,
offi ce buildin gs, gas station s, etc., is expected
to drop a bout 8 per ce nt below last year.
Th e bi g decreases in commercial buildings
are expected to show up in fewer stores,
restaurants, gas stations and garages. There
may be more warehou ses and office bui ld-
ings this year.
Contra cts let durin g the first six month
were about 18 per cent above th e fir t half
of 1948, whi ch gives a bright outlook on
future building plans. The average cost of
bui ldin g material s advanced in Jun e but
th e gene ral trend is for lower costs, th e
peak havin g been reached last Octobe r.
Th e spotlight is expected to shift to the
publi c constru ction fi eld, with the federal
governm ent stepping up its program to ea e
the reces ion. This is the plan that has been
in th e background sin ce th e end of th e
war. State and local governm ent are gettin g
into action fa st, showing a 35 per cent in -
crease in publi c constru ction for th e first
four month s of th e year over the sa me
period last year. Hospitals are a major item
in these con stru ction programs. Total vol -
um e of hi ghway construction is not ex-
pected to go mu ch a bove the 1948 level this
year.
CROP R E PORTS - Th e dry wea ther
th at hit th e New England and some eastern
states shows what weath er ca n do to th e
gene ral outlook; it can get seri ous yet.
Total reports were still on th e side of
bumper crops to July 1, with th e pro pect
that pri ce supports of farm produ cts will
weaken in ma ny areas. An exampl e i th e
fact th at growers have generally received
less th an th e support pri ce for pea nuts.
Som e unfavorable reports have already
shown u p on in gredi ents used in making
ve ndor merchandi se.
EMPLOYMENT - Total employment is
holdin g up better than many had guessed,
althou gh July and August a re expected to
SLOT MACHINE
SPECIALIST
Expert Repair Wark
PAYOUT and PERCENTAGE
ADJUSTMENTS
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203 Eas' Los Feliz Blvd.
Citrus 1-1093
Glendale 5, Calif.
12
COIN MACHINE REVIEW
be transttlOn mon ths that will revea l what
the trends may be for the last four months
of the year. Layoffs attract mu ch attention
in areas where such things happen and
tend to di turb the public. Total unem-
ployed a of July 1 was roughly 4,000,000,
with estimate that the total wil l be 5,000,-
000 to 8,000,000 by the end of the year.
In a normal prewar year, total unemployed
reached th e 8,000,000 figure_ But the total
force of workers has been greatly increased,
the popu lation is increasing and hence un-
employment is likely to get more attention _
Many plans are said to be ready to be put
into action when the unemployment figure
passes the 5,000,000 mark, 'chiefly one of
public con truction.
Total number of people working half
time or less is increasing fast.
EXPORTS-Dollar shortages and money
troubles increase in Mexico, Sweden, South
Africa, and one of the major problems of
the U. S. will be to prevent complete col-
lapse of Britain.
EUROP E AN AID - T his factor will
playa declining part in the future business
picture, although billions will be spent on
aid and defense during the next fiscal year.
It is reported that Congress has been flooded
with complaint from manufacturing firm s
of all izes about the competition of Euro-
pean goods with products made in this
country.
FARMER S-As the recession advances,
the prices which farmers pay for manu-
fa ctured goods are higher than the prices
he gets for his prod ucts. But bumper crops
are counted on to provide plenty of money
for farmers. Government price support is
preventing a complete crash in farm prices.
For the consumer, food prices may decline
4 to 6 per cen t this year, leader predict.
Prices which farmers receive are till well
above . a profitable production ratio and
farmer show a willingness to accept lower
prices, if goods they b uy also come down.
FREI GHT-Tota! goods ca rried by rail
and truck lines is on the decline. Eastern
truck l ines were recently granted a small
rate increase by the ICC. The ICC also re-
cently took up again the plea for higher
rates on less than carload shipments, an
increase strongly opposed by the cigarette,
cigar and candy trades. Wholesalers and
retail druggi ts made chief opposition to
the basing point price (delivered price)
bill in Congressional hearings.
GASOLINE-A Senate committee began
investigating in June the rl Slng trend in
gasoline prices, hearing heads of the big
oil companies, labor leaders and al 0 users.
In May demand for ga oline wa reported
about 7 per cent ahead of May last year.
Texas and Oklahoma producers cut produc-
tion of crude oil for July and stirred up new
charges that production is being cut to
keep prices up.
GO VERNME NT M O NEY- RFC loans
for business firms are runni ng about 25
per cent higher than last year; about three-
fourths of the firm s that apply for loans
get help ; most loan are to comparatively
small firms: in it 17 years of exi tence
this government agency has shown a good
profit over and above all operating costs.
Some coin machine firms have u ed RFC
loan since the war_ More recently, bottlers
are said to be leadin g applicants for RFC
loans. Prediction is that RFC will increase
its loans to firm s that help to maintain em-
ployment. Federal payments on social se-
curity plans will amount to nearly ni ne bil-
lion dollars in 1949, while states and cities
will payout nearly three billions more.
I NVENTORIES- All industries are re-
ported to be redu cing inventories at a
faster rate than had been anticipated_ Buy-
ing of materials is said to be on a 30-day
basis generally now, much lower than six
months ago. Retailers and wholesalers fol-
low one rule-cut down inventories and
order in smaller quantity.
MAT E R IALS - In the metals field ,
manufacturers buy in smaller quantity,
awaiting further price reductions. Auto
makers report that price reduction on ma-
terials thus far have only reduced the cost
of making a car by 80 to $100.
P RODUCTION-So much is said about
plant layoffs, shorter work-weeks, etc., that
reports on production will be increasingly
important. It is generally reported that man-
hour ou tput is on an upward trend in most
industries_ A recent report shows, for ex-
ample, that the cigarette industry is main-
taining a higher output with definitely
fewer workers.
Officially, industrial output dropped about
5 per cent in May and June, reaching a
level about 13 per cent below the postwar
peak of last November. July an d August,
with many plants closing for vacations, are
expected to show further declines in pro-
duction figures. An important trade organ-
ization, including various industries in its
membership, reported that July and August
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will certainly show declines in output but
that a good fall revival will show up. Th e
organization also reported that 50 per cent
of its member firms have fewer employees
and also work shorter weeks_
PRICES - Purchasing agents for large
firm, in rece nt convention, advanced the
view that prices are not being reduced as
fast as conditions call for; too many firms
make a token reduction, they said. Real
price reductions are expected before the
year ends, hence most firms buy supplies
for 30 days or less.
Experts pred ict that retail prices will
continue to decline for many months after
raw materials have reached bottom. One
big retail leader ays prices on consumer
goods will decline for another six to twelve
month.
Business and prices are going down to-
gether. Some ay the faster the decl ine,
the more rapid the recovery. Prices, at
wholesale level, are down about 8 per
cent.
R E T AI L TRADE-Offic ial reports show
a good many variations in different types
Qf stores, but in general retail trade in
volume of goods sold is holding a much
higher level than had been an ticipated.
Department stores are generally showing
declines in dollar volume as compared with
last year-but prices are lower. Retail
trade has been watched for a sign of alarm
among the people, and trade thus far shows
that people have plenty of money and are
still buying_ Retail profits are decidedly
down, however.
T AXES-At the time this review was
prepared, Congre s had picked up the ex-
cise tax question again and predictions
were being made that most war-time ex-
cises might be repealed before Congress
adjou rns_ Purpose would be to stimulate
store trade_ Newspapers had nothing to
say about the federal excise tax on coin
machi nes.
T O URIST T RADE-Due to the impor-
tance of thi s factor during the summer
months, more detailed reports will be pub·
lished elsewhere.
WAR - As predicted in this column
many months ago, the publ ic is becoming
less and less war conscious and no longer
can be excited about the prospect of war.
A recent survey among manufacturers
shows about 70 per cent of them saying
that defen e spending meant nothing to
them. However, big defense spending will
go ahead for another year at least.
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SOUTHERN D I STRIBUTOR
L
AUGUST, 1949
FO R O RI G I NAL
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CR I SS
CROSS
BELLS
13

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