be kept at a high level, they feared, by the
use of greater promotions than ever.
One candy trade paper recently declared
boldly that "unnecessary confusion and be-
fuddlement have seeped into the ranks of
the confectionery manufacturers in this
country . . . . For some unknown reason,
an unknown development has had a dis-
turbing effect on the trade, and many mem-
bers of the industry seem to have lost in
the transition all of their former confidence.
. . . Sure, there has been a shrinkage in
the candy market; but it's a normal trend."
The trade paper suggests that candy
manufacturers have been infected by some
of the "fear psychosis" that is making its
rounds in the country today.
As to further price reductions on candy
bars, Robert H. W. Welch, Jr., vice-presi-
dent of James O. Welch Co., recently told
a meeting of wholesalers , that the correct
and best price level for 24·count boxes is
72 cents. This was taken as an indication
that manufacturers would like to see prices
standardized at present levels for a time.
Welch said that his firin has one bar
which must be sold at 75 cents for some
time yet, and that some of the best bars
are still being sold at 80 cents. Manufac-
turers cannot reduce prices much more
until raw materials are much cheaper, he
said.
The manufacturer also suggested that
manufacturers and sellers of candy must
face the fact that other products are com-
peting with candy today, and that such
competition is what threatens to limit fu-
ture candy sales. He suggested that whole-
salers must worry more about this competi-
tion than about buying candy at lower
than 75·cent levels.
Makers and sellers of candy bars have
had to face the official report recently, made
of candy production last year, that bar
sale apparently made a slight decline (in
pounds) in 1948 as compared with 1947.
The official report said the year's total was
off only one per cent, based on the reports
of 33 of the principal manufacturers. The
industry had hoped for a fairly nice gain
over the previous year.
The final and official tabulation on candy
bar sales last year is not available, but last
December the final report on 1947 sales
was announced. TIms, it is now possible to
begin to realize definite postwar trends. The
years 1946-1948 show the candy trade as a
whole is turning more to bars; solid and
chocolate·covered bars made good gains
in 1947 over the previous year (in pounds).
Bar output in 1946, of course, had shown
some decline from 1945 because of the
high rate in consumption of bars by mili·
tary forces, solid chocolate bar con ump-
tion especially showing this decline.
It would now appear that total candy bar
consumption in 1948 may have dropped
slightly below the previous year, and de-
velopments thus far in 1949 do not suggest
that the candy bar trade is fully recovering
to the high level that appear possible.
As suggested in the column on M erchan-
dise, the first three months of last year
revealed big poundage gains over bar out-
put in the first three months of 1947. The
official report on candy bar output for the
first three months of 1949 will be awaited
with interest, and such reports should be
a\-ailable by May 10.
Sugar Up; Chocolate
Promises Price Drop
WASHINGTON-The stuff that candy is
made of-sugar and chocolate-began the
new year with mixed price trends. Sugar is
an important ingredient in a number of
APRIL, 1949
merchandise items and hence is important
to a large section of the vending trade.
As previously reported, the Dept. of Agri-
culture set the 1949 quota of sugar at a
total calculated to bring about an increase
in the price. Accordingly, price trends in
sugar and futures trading in recent weeks
have been upward. Increased freight rates
on sugar have also recently gone into effect.
This will pose a new problem for manufac-
turers of candy, soft drinks and ice cream,
at a time when there is heavy pressure to
bring the wholesale price of these products
down.
The fixing of the national sugar quota
at a figure to keep prices relatively high is
done under the Sugar Act of 1948, passed
by Congress to protect U. S. -growers of cane
and beet sugar. The Secretary of Agricul-
ture has power to adjust quotas from time
to time, in order to bring about changes in
the price level.
Speculators soon took advantage of the
lower 1949 quota and futures prices began
to advance on sugar; the higher freight
rates came at a time to make high prices
worse. No doubt, quotas will be adjusted
later in the year to reduce prices some, as
was done last year.
Sugar distribution last year showed de-
clines, but activity in the sugar markets
during January indicated increased activity,
with some firms buying for three months
ahead. Candy and soft drink makers had
been among those who, during last year,
reduced stocks and delayed buying to resist
high prices_
The most recent report available says a
three-cornered wage and price war is still
on in Cuba and that shipments early in the
year were delayed because of this situation.
This publication has cautioned previously
that the immense Cuban sugar supply may
be upset any time, due to internal condi-
tions.
,
The chocolate outlook may present a
brighter picture during the year, for cocoa
bean trade was marked by a lower price
trend in recent weeks. Naturally, imports
for last year were considerably below 1947
and warehouse stocks declined during the
year_ The general price level for last year
was also about 36 per cent above the level
for 1947.
The market was a little uneasy in Janu-
ary due to slowness of the Brazilian trade
to ship beans. _ Crop predictions suggest
that the Gold Coast crop may be the best
since the war, but still below the average.
Destruction of 50 million cocoa trees in the
Gold Coast area has been urged by scien-
tists to stop disease; the area ha about 400
million bearing trees_
N. Y. Had Candy Tax Bill
,
NEW YORK-The candy industry had
at least one legislative proposal that aimed
at a direct tax on candy, a bill dropped
into the hopper early in th e session of the
New York Legislature. Final disposition of
the bill is not known at this time but it did
cause concern among leaders in the trade.
It was pointed out as a sign of what could
happen at a time when 0 many tates are
looking for additional revenue.
Leaders in the trade had predicted a
trend to new state sales taxe and that
many of them might follow the example of
a few other states by exempting foods but
at the same time not exempting candy.
Leaders in the trade proposed an industry
policy that when foods are exempted from
sales taxes, then candy should be exempted
also.
Newspapers had reported late last year
that Congress might also get a proposal for
a federal excise on candy and soft drinks,
but apparently such ideas have been lost in
the moves to repeal excise taxes in general.
Candy Makers Petition FTC
To Help On Trade Rules
CHICAGO - Candy manufacturers,
through National Confectioners Assn., have
recently asked for a trade practice confer-
ence for the candy industry, the petition
being made to the Federal Trade Commis-
sion. Candy jobbers in the Philadelphia
area had obtained approval of fair trade
practices rules from FTC more than a year
ago_
NCA had urveyed candy manufacturers
and found that a majority felt trade prac-
tice rules would be an advantage. Applica-
tion was made to FTC a few weeks ago and
the first meeting may be some weeks ahead_
Then a number of conferences will be nec-
essary before a final code of fair trade
rules can be set up for candy manufac-
turers.
During 1948 a large number of candy bar
manufacturers had been the object of ]:TC
complaints for alleged unfair price dis-
counts to big buyers, including chain stores
and Automatic Canteen Co. Some candy
manufacturers have expressed fears that a
cut-throat price war may show up in the
trade, due to greatly increased factory ca-
pacity.
FTC will help enforce fair trade stand-
ards based on anti-trust laws when a major-
ity in any trade group requests such help.
New Sugar May Control Fat
BALTIMORE-Research workers at the
John Hopkins Medical School here may
have discovered a sugar that helps to utilize
fats and thus prevent obesity. The sugar
has the scientific name of galactose and is
found in milk sugar.
The new sugar might have promise as an
ingredient to incorporate into candy and
thus become a favorable food for people
who fear that sweets make them gain in
weight.
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430-434 Oc:tavia Street
San Franc:isc:o 2. California
45